Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb272…bb76 other 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$310 (-3%) realized −$302 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%78W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$175
14 days+$242
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$262
sports 45% −$656
world 1% +$36
weather 0% −$20
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.1% +17.7% 62% 62% +34.8%
≤30d 20 +30.7% +18.3% 65% 65% +29.3%
≤90d 141 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 50% -12.5%
all 151 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 51% -13.4%
10% -18.9% 50% -21.7%
15% -26.7% 49% -29.3%
20% -33.9% 46% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$53 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses78 / 73
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 166
History coverage98d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-9%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND W Jun 21 $46 +$61 +133%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $19 +$27 +140%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 Jun 19 $29 +$41 +143%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $57 +$62 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $30 +$43 +145%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 +$14 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$41 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $23 +$26 +109%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $102 +$66 +65%
EC Vitória vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score May 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Real Madrid CF leading at halftime? May 14 $87 +$56 +65%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 14 $51 +$36 +71%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $162 −$159 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $51 +$31 +62%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 13 $78 +$53 +67%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $77 +$46 +60%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $44 −$43 -99%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score May 10 $61 +$35 +57%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 10? May 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 −$11 -36%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) May 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $50 +$7 +14%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $39 +$29 +76%
Racing Club de Lens leading at halftime? May 08 $30 −$30 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $101 +$31 +31%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $61 −$60 -99%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? May 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND France leading at halftime BUY 30¢ $31 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu BUY 11¢ $15 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain leading at halftime? AND Will U BUY 37¢ $16 34h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 44h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 42¢ $46 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $30 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $61 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar BUY 53¢ $30 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 12¢ $9 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $10 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $19 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 40¢ $29 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $57 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will France win on BUY 33¢ $20 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $30 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $50 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $26 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 30¢ $20 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: S BUY 24¢ $9 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 13¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.63 · official $139.63 · 297 history records