Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb26f…7e32 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,685 (+6%) realized +$1,655 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate76%28W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$683per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$645
30 days+$875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$858
other 31% +$401
crypto 21% −$1
tech 13% +$227
finance 0% −$74
economics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 50% -2.9%
≤90d 16 -7.9% -16.7% 56% 38% -7.2%
all 37 +9.1% -1.3% 76% 57% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 57% -4.6%
10% -10.7% 38% -13.7%
15% -19.4% 14% -22.1%
20% -27.3% 8% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$890) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$180 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$1,655
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage316d
Avg bet$683
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $80 $110 +$30 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $4,768 +$1,152 +24%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $718 −$540 -75%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 15 $318 +$33 +10%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3,167 −$98 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 10 $74 −$74 -100%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 08 $256 +$80 +31%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $27 +$11 +39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 01 $2,596 +$311 +12%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close o May 29 $46 −$3 -7%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o May 26 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $489 +$37 +8%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? May 25 $2,042 −$269 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $1,260 +$16 +1%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 24 $220 +$55 +25%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? May 20 $386 −$224 -58%
Will Hyperliquid reach $62 by December 31, 2026? May 19 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jan 16 $1,974 −$271 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Jan 16 $1,100 −$83 -8%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026? Jan 05 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $229 +$8 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? Jan 02 $476 +$84 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 02 $542 +$82 +15%
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? Jan 01 $489 +$114 +23%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $519 +$98 +19%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $1,195 +$391 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? Dec 28 $123 +$9 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Dec 28 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? Dec 26 $29 +$5 +18%
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? Dec 26 $269 +$27 +10%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026? Dec 26 $81 +$15 +18%
Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026? Dec 24 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Dec 12 $1,218 +$344 +28%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Nov 21 $890 +$50 +6%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Oct 27 $76 +$17 +23%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Oct 27 $0 $0 +32%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Sep 24 $66 +$53 +81%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $47 +$18 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close o SELL Yes 18¢ $71 1h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close o BUY Yes 12¢ $14 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $920 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $53 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $100 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.95 · official $109.95 (match) · 519 history records