Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb26d…b000
sports · 166 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$153 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$153 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$136
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses81 / 71
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions14
Markets (closed)152 / 166
History coverage121d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 14 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days−$64
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 87¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kiwoom Heroes 52¢ 46¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Knicks vs. Hornets Knicks 47¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Maycee Barber 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 66¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anhelina Kalinina Anhelina Kalinina 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Wizards Wizards 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 +$16 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +24%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 05 $10 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 05 $10 +$3 +33%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 05 $20 +$14 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 05 $30 +$21 +68%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $20 +$20 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $20 +$24 +119%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $10 +$7 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 23 $10 +$7 +73%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $10 +$8 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $12 −$7 -57%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 18 $20 +$11 +55%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 18 $20 +$14 +67%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 18 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% −$142
world 5% −$7
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$4
other 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 52¢ $7 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $10 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $10 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $10 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $10 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $10 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $10 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $10 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $10 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $10 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $20 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $40 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 17d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova BUY Arantxa Rus 51¢ $10 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $20 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $20 17d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 57¢ $8 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $10 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 56¢ $20 21d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 57¢ $20 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +70.0% +53.8% 100% 100% +55.5%
≤30d 51 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 139 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 46% -15.7%
all 152 -10.8% -19.3% 53% 45% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -16.0%
10% -27.0% 42% -24.1%
15% -34.0% 38% -31.4%
20% -40.5% 32% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.09 · official $136.10 (match) · 289 history records