Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb26c…44da
sports · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$153 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$153 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$28
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage266d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 27¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5 Over 53¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-02? Yes 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 10¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5 Over 57¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Warriors Warriors 36¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 66¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) 49ers 28¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Rams vs. Seahawks Rams 34¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Rams 51¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 46¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 06 $2 +$2 +113%
EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$3 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-02? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$16 +80%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jan 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Seeker FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 22 $9 +$3 +33%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Raptors vs. Warriors Jan 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 18 $14 +$14 +102%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 18 $32 −$16 -50%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $15 +$13 +85%
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5 Jan 12 $12 −$12 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5 Jan 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 11 $12 +$11 +89%
Spread: Indiana (-3.5) Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$165
other 29% +$13
crypto 4% +$2
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 13h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $30 66d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up $2 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down $2 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up $2 67d
EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down $1 68d
EC Bahia vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 68d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 72d
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? SELL Yes 65¢ $15 72d
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 72d
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 73d
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 73d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 34¢ $31 138d
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) BUY Rams 51¢ $30 138d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 142d
Raptors vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 36¢ $20 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 50% +16.9%
≤30d 4 -12.4% -20.8% 50% 50% +16.9%
≤90d 18 -7.2% -16.0% 50% 50% -16.6%
all 33 -27.9% -34.8% 39% 39% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 39% -48.1%
10% -41.0% 39% -53.1%
15% -46.7% 36% -57.6%
20% -51.9% 30% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.49 · official $28.49 (match) · 53 history records