Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb269…6ade crypto 1587 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,670 (-8%) realized −$7,696 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%602W / 955L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$387
7 days+$515
14 days+$248
30 days+$1,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4,595
sports 30% −$2,701
crypto 25% −$130
world 1% +$227
politics 0% +$45
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +24.2% +12.4% 45% 45% +1.2%
≤30d 508 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 40% -1.9%
≤90d 1273 -30.5% -37.2% 26% 26% -54.5%
all 1557 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 39% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 39% -16.5%
10% -21.1% 38% -24.5%
15% -28.7% 37% -31.8%
20% -35.7% 36% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$51 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$7,696
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses602 / 955
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1557 / 1587
History coverage221d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 58¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$136 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$75 +381%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$20 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$31 +425%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $49 +$32 +65%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$148 +145%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$13 +251%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$53 +206%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 15 $31 +$39 +129%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$60 +59%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$11 +181%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $49 +$129 +262%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $46 +$127 +276%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $294 +$115 +39%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$178 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$25 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $136 +$244 +180%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $43 +$103 +237%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $27 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $101 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 89¢ $94 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $19 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 3h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 4h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $21 7h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $102 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $250 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $102 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $49 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 16h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Team to Take First Corner SELL Egypt 100¢ $15 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.51 · official $372.66 · 2757 history records