Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb260…1769 crypto 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,625 (-2%) realized −$1,568 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%205W / 125L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,552
other 1% −$577
politics 0% −$123
world 0% −$341
finance 0% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.9% -3.3% 60% 60% +6.2%
≤30d 5 +6.9% -3.3% 60% 60% +6.2%
≤90d 318 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 46% -10.9%
all 330 -2.0% -11.3% 62% 45% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 45% -12.7%
10% -19.8% 38% -21.1%
15% -27.6% 30% -28.7%
20% -34.7% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$122 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,568
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses205 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage149d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 36¢ 16¢ $100 $43 −$57 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$83 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$92 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$65 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 15 $74 +$54 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 15 $149 −$143 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $116 +$447 +386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $99 +$111 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $233 −$222 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 14 $206 +$128 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $100 +$107 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $138 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 06 $151 +$76 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 06 $110 +$59 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 21 $397 −$380 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 21 $394 −$394 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 19 $391 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 19 $656 −$656 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 18 $928 +$230 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 18 $884 +$43 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 18 $300 +$73 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 18 $1,263 +$48 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 18 $110 −$98 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 18 $100 +$125 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 18 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 18 $100 +$134 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 18 $300 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 18 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 18 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 18 $300 +$30 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $188 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $166 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $127 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.65 · official $45.40 · 995 history records