Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb25f…4724 world 668 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%228W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$95
sports 24% −$34
other 17% −$78
politics 12% −$23
finance 4% −$2
tech 2% +$7
economics 1% $0
culture 1% +$4
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 27% -16.4%
≤30d 268 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 25% -11.0%
≤90d 530 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 28% -11.8%
all 530 -3.5% -12.7% 43% 28% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 28% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 21% -20.2%
15% -28.7% 18% -27.9%
20% -35.7% 14% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses228 / 302
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions137
Markets (closed)530 / 668
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 137 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+101%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 21¢ 53¢ $4 $11 +$6 (+148%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 25¢ 72¢ $4 $11 +$7 (+187%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 34¢ 50¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+45%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? No 39¢ 66¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+68%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 38¢ 81¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+112%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No 52¢ 64¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 87¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 39¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Russia enter Stavky by June 30? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 52¢ 42¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 78¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 80¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $32 −$4 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +124%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +138%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 74¢ $4 7m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 67¢ $2 31m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 41¢ $4 42m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 46¢ $2 53m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $3 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 83¢ $2 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $3 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $3 8h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 44¢ $2 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 40¢ $2 10h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $3 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 10h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.39 · official $379.35 (match) · 2398 history records