Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb25e…1071 other 562 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$62 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate78%438W / 121L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days−$144
14 days−$137
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$160
crypto 11% −$9
sports 4% +$19
weather 3% +$16
tech 2% +$7
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% −$42
politics 0% +$1
world 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -5.7% -14.7% 36% 26% -12.9%
≤30d 125 -5.0% -14.0% 48% 24% -11.6%
≤90d 234 -1.4% -10.8% 71% 14% -10.1%
all 559 -0.4% -9.8% 78% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses438 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions3
Markets (closed)559 / 562
History coverage195d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 53¢ 11¢ $47 $10 −$37 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $49 −$39 -79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $49 −$46 -93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $54 +$83 +154%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $50 +$26 +53%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $51 −$6 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$32 +64%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$13 -13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $199 −$24 -12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$8 +16%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$56 +112%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$35 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $50 +$44 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $289 +$19 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $48 +$48 +100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$240 +473%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$61 +62%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $167 −$9 -5%
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 17 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $45 −$4 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$4 -7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 −$4 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 +$28 +56%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $48 +$22 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$23 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$3 +18%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $59 −$6 -11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 10¢ $10 7m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 5¢ $4 7m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 46¢ $49 33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 53¢ $48 33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 40¢ $52 42m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $131 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $48 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $47 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $76 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $16 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $26 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 64¢ $7 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $48 12h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $3 13h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $4 17h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 7¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $50 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 18h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 8¢ $41 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 8¢ $38 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $50 18h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $48 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.02 · official $106.02 (match) · 1629 history records