Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb256…d060 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate53%27W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 28% −$15
politics 9% +$4
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 5% +$1
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 51 -0.7% -10.2% 53% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage473d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $46 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $6 $0 +5%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 01 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 24 $4 $0 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 $0 +3%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $12 +$4 +29%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $14 $0 -3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $2 $0 -8%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $3 $0 +8%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $17 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $46 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $19 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 7d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 95¢ $4 327d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 BUY No 95¢ $7 327d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? SELL No 95¢ $7 327d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? BUY No 94¢ $7 328d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 96¢ $7 328d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 328d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $7 328d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $7 328d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 92¢ $6 328d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 88¢ $6 344d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL No 93¢ $5 344d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL No 93¢ $2 344d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 BUY No 93¢ $6 344d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 90¢ $6 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records