Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb256…1821 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-5%) realized −$113 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%81W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$84
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 36% -13.6%
≤30d 106 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 38% -13.7%
≤90d 106 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 38% -13.7%
all 106 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 38% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 20% -21.9%
15% -27.8% 11% -29.5%
20% -34.8% 4% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses81 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 0¢ 90¢ $0 $23 +$23 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $74 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $99 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.21 · official $22.70 (match) · 241 history records