trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 50% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 40% | 0% | -9.1% |
| all | 11 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 18% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $94 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 16 | $93 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Jun 03 | $91 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 28 | $91 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 13 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Mar 18 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Mar 16 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 12 | $92 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? | Mar 07 | $93 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca | Mar 07 | $94 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Mar 07 | $94 | $0 | -0% |