Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb254…3115 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,457 (-40%) realized −$158 · open −$4,299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$4,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$4,608
tech 9% −$427
world 6% +$330
sports 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +57.2% +42.2% 25% 25% -35.8%
≤30d 12 +57.2% +42.2% 25% 25% -35.8%
≤90d 12 +57.2% +42.2% 25% 25% -35.8%
all 12 +57.2% +42.2% 25% 25% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.2% 25% -35.8%
10% ← realistic here +28.6% 25% -42.0%
15% +16.2% 25% -47.6%
20% +4.8% 17% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +214% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$129 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$4,611
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$4,299
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions35
Markets (closed)12 / 47
History coverage8d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,299 $1,149 −$1,149 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $500 −$500 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $400 $300 −$100 (-25%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $424 $212 −$212 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $197 $98 −$98 (-50%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $122 $74 −$47 (-39%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $112 $66 −$45 (-40%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $103 $66 −$37 (-36%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $107 $53 −$53 (-50%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $64 $48 −$16 (-25%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-13%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $283 +$113 +40%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $120 +$483 +402%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $172 −$167 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $404 +$105 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $378 −$367 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $538 −$522 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $105 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $106 4h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $25 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $47 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,611.13 · official $4,611.13 (match) · 264 history records