Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb253…26fe sports 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,057 (-4%) realized −$1,054 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%141W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days−$136
14 days−$671
30 days−$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$801
other 14% −$244
world 3% +$60
crypto 1% −$175
politics 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.7% -13.8% 43% 39% -12.9%
≤30d 147 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 46% -14.7%
≤90d 238 -11.8% -20.2% 47% 45% -18.8%
all 277 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 49% -13.7%
10% -22.1% 47% -21.9%
15% -29.6% 43% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$64 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses141 / 136
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions4
Markets (closed)277 / 281
History coverage112d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 49¢ $150 $123 −$27 (-18%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 89¢ $58 $93 +$34 (+59%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 55¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 30¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $97 +$51 +52%
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 −$26 -97%
Goiás EC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $36 −$3 -8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $58 +$16 +28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $58 +$52 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $316 −$149 -47%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $122 +$43 +36%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $124 −$123 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $156 +$90 +58%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $165 −$9 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $88 +$77 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $611 −$236 -39%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $287 −$174 -61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $294 +$204 +69%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $377 −$82 -22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $260 +$237 +91%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $134 −$4 -3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $189 +$75 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $114 −$26 -23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 −$26 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $165 −$141 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $198 −$197 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 +$168 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $42 −$41 -99%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$18 -36%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $39 −$29 -75%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $23 +$16 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $112 −$89 -80%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $29 +$20 +67%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $154 −$72 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $127 −$127 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $101 +$48 +48%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $101 +$60 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $82 +$119 +145%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $109 −$27 -25%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $50 +$59 +118%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $146 −$96 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $59 39m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $41 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $49 1h
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $148 1h
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $97 2h
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Goiás EC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $33 2h
Goiás EC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $36 2h
Will São Bernardo FC win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $27 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 77¢ $58 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $110 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $29 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $29 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $151 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $151 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $165 5d
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $122 5d
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $124 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $246 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $156 6d
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $156 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $29 6d
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 62¢ $165 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $165 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $88 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $88 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $113 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $113 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $287 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.37 · official $293.37 (match) · 557 history records