Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb252…2e84 crypto 67 markets active 2d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate93%62W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$1
other 7% $0
sports 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.4% -3.7% 93% 13% -3.8%
≤30d 67 +1.4% -8.3% 93% 12% -8.2%
≤90d 67 +1.4% -8.3% 93% 12% -8.2%
all 67 +1.4% -8.3% 93% 12% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -8.2%
10% -17.1% 4% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 1% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses62 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records