Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb251…caa4 sports 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$480 (+4%) realized +$481 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 70L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$5,321
14 days−$5,322
30 days−$5,322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,944
other 13% −$1,439
weather 2% −$20
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -73.7% -76.2% 4% 3% -94.8%
≤30d 72 -72.8% -75.4% 4% 3% -94.7%
≤90d 75 -66.1% -69.3% 8% 7% -94.2%
all 129 +6.4% -3.7% 46% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 45% -5.8%
10% -12.9% 44% -14.8%
15% -21.4% 41% -23.1%
20% -29.1% 37% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$76 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$481
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 70
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage224d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 1? No 64¢ 62¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? No 77¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 1? Jun 29 $36 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1? Jun 29 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1? Jun 29 $40 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1? Jun 29 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 18 Jun 29 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 30? Jun 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? Jun 29 $32 −$5 -15%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on July 3, 2026? Jun 28 $27 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 30? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 30? Jun 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? Jun 28 $38 −$5 -12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 30? Jun 28 $15 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29? Jun 28 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 29? Jun 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? Jun 28 $40 −$9 -24%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $3 +$3 +86%
Panthers vs. Senators Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Islanders vs. Oilers Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Predators Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruins vs. Sharks Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Clippers: O/U 220.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Kraken vs. Devils Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 223.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-02-15? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Pakistan Tri-Series: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe (Game 2) Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 2AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Sabres Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Genoa CFC (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Porto vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-12-27? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-01? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Akron vs. Bowling Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Flyers Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Penguins vs. Blackhawks Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 4, 2AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 1? SELL No 76¢ $34 28m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 1? BUY No 78¢ $36 32m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 1? BUY No 64¢ $33 32m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1? SELL No 61¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 1? BUY No 61¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1? SELL No 63¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1? SELL No 66¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 1? BUY No 66¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1? SELL No 56¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 1? BUY No 56¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 77¢ $1 6h
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 18 SELL Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 18 BUY Yes 16¢ $0 7h
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 18 BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 51¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 57¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 60¢ $32 11h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on July 3, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $27 14h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on July 3, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $27 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $15 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? SELL No 64¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30? BUY No 73¢ $38 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.65 · official $33.65 (match) · 279 history records