Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb251…8c9b weather 195 markets active 14h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized −$5 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%48W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day190.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 +2.7% -7.1% 25% 22% -14.9%
≤30d 192 +2.7% -7.1% 25% 22% -14.9%
≤90d 192 +2.7% -7.1% 25% 22% -14.9%
all 192 +2.7% -7.1% 25% 22% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 22% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 22% -23.1%
15% -24.1% 21% -30.5%
20% -31.6% 19% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses48 / 144
Open positions3
Markets (closed)192 / 195
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day190.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 100¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+732%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Yes 27¢ 99¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+268%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +581%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 18 $4 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 81¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 72¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 76¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 55¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? SELL No 72¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? SELL No 65¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.31 · official $13.31 (match) · 711 history records