Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb251…6f5b other 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 234d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38,054 (+8%) realized +$37,520 · open +$534
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate58%222W / 159L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,144per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$800est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$7,290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$1,621
14 days+$2,797
30 days+$15,578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$19,359
sports 30% +$58,261
tech 2% +$211
world 1% +$52
politics 1% +$539
economics 1% +$577
finance 1% +$345
crypto 0% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 43% -26.3%
≤30d 48 -5.9% -14.9% 54% 54% +27.4%
≤90d 63 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 54% +27.9%
all 381 -8.4% -17.1% 58% 42% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 42% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 35% -10.8%
15% -32.3% 26% -19.4%
20% -38.9% 18% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$707) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$503 vs −$454 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$7,290
Realized+$37,520
Unrealized+$534
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses222 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$800
Open positions13
Markets (closed)381 / 394
History coverage234d ⚠
Avg bet$1,144
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3,133 $3,125 −$8 (-0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 92¢ $679 $917 +$238 (+35%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $710 $705 −$5 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $561 $653 +$92 (+16%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $554 $409 −$144 (-26%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 77¢ $325 $385 +$60 (+18%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 32¢ $204 $323 +$119 (+59%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 62¢ $155 $308 +$152 (+98%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $220 $195 −$25 (-11%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 74¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $36 $51 +$15 (+42%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $34 $27 −$6 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $285 −$94 -33%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $153 −$77 -50%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $159 +$241 +152%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $29 +$5 +17%
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $333 −$333 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$21 +33%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $195 −$72 -37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,650 +$800 +48%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 $0 -2%
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $74 +$20 +27%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 17 $108 +$14 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $260 +$65 +25%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $209 −$209 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $540 −$489 -90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $65 +$16 +25%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $590 −$590 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $730 −$730 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $595 −$595 -100%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $84 −$48 -57%
Will David Raya record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $363 +$60 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $130 +$120 +92%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $770 +$230 +30%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $29 +$71 +250%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $152 +$98 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $440 +$477 +108%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9,413 +$4,246 +45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $630 +$209 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $680 +$251 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$12 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 +$20 +87%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 09 $135 −$135 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $16,391 +$12,170 +74%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 30 $380 +$87 +23%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $650 +$317 +49%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $720 +$207 +29%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 21 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $84,152 +$41,351 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 53m
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,911 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $255 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $306 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $408 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $191 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $69 2h
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 2d
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 2d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 3d
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $157 3d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 46¢ $33 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $29 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $28 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $95 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $195 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $450 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $215 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $785 3d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 25¢ $21 3d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $3 3d
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $35 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $597 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,290.22 · official $7,290.22 (match) · 3500 history records