Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb24c…eefe world 177 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15,348 (-2%) realized −$2,965 · open −$12,383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate70%78W / 34L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,465per market
Trades / day59.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$173,502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$400
14 days−$18,265
30 days−$15,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$14,880
other 9% +$3,431
politics 8% −$16,769
tech 8% +$3,268
crypto 7% −$1,608
finance 7% +$1,430
economics 1% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 5% -8.4%
≤30d 62 -4.2% -13.3% 63% 15% -14.4%
≤90d 112 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 19% -12.7%
all 112 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 19% -12.7%
10% -19.6% 11% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 8% -28.7%
20% -34.5% 7% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$3,008) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$1,041 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$173,502
Realized−$2,965
Unrealized−$12,383
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses78 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions65
Markets (closed)112 / 177
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$4,465
Trades / day59.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $25,000 $40,275 +$15,275 (+61%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $14,067 $14,977 +$910 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $9,731 $9,985 +$254 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $9,491 $9,985 +$494 (+5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $25,000 $9,725 −$15,275 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 72¢ $7,529 $7,250 −$279 (-4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $6,830 $6,995 +$164 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $6,485 $6,553 +$67 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $6,187 $6,383 +$196 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $4,790 $4,983 +$193 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $4,330 $4,275 −$55 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $3,982 $4,200 +$218 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $3,748 $3,994 +$246 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $3,275 $3,300 +$25 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,008 $3,094 +$86 (+3%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,580 $2,595 +$15 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,580 $2,595 +$15 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,481 $2,495 +$14 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $2,137 $2,490 +$353 (+17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $2,395 $2,445 +$50 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 57¢ $2,855 $2,280 −$576 (-20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,982 $1,999 +$17 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,634 $1,657 +$24 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,457 $1,495 +$37 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,410 $1,460 +$50 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $3,788 +$84 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $589 −$44 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $83 −$29 -34%
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 27 $430 +$45 +10%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $995 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 26 $2,826 +$53 +2%
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 26 $470 +$9 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $225 −$39 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 26 $3,630 +$92 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 26 $544 −$177 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $1,284 −$40 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $228 −$66 -29%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $106 −$62 -58%
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 25 $365 +$40 +11%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $993 +$7 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 24 $3,008 +$165 +6%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 24 $427 −$97 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $12,331 +$452 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $7,902 −$7,008 -89%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $14,008 +$736 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1,976 +$24 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9,789 −$384 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $49,085 −$11,896 -24%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $1,823 +$10 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $463 +$25 +6%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $420 −$52 -12%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $891 −$93 -10%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $145 −$27 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $742 +$12 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,333 +$667 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $23,530 +$1,470 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $11,701 +$299 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2,355 −$1,547 -66%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $512 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $486 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 09 $520 +$25 +5%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 09 $830 −$830 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 09 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $2,217 −$193 -9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $966 −$469 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $23,870 +$2,085 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $4,767 −$1,842 -39%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $800 +$25 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $917 −$472 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $455 +$920 +202%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,231 +$1,264 +57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,823 −$2,736 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $166 4m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $755 25m
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $435 34m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $107 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,281 2h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $365 2h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $144 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $59 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $13 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $13 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $15 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 89¢ $76 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 89¢ $146 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $14 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $24 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $92 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $92 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $86 4h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $5 4h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $22 4h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $27 4h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 4h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $973 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $45 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $384 8h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $72 10h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 72¢ $45 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173,502.06 · official $173,505.89 (match) · 3500 history records