Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb24a…fd7e sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,173 (-7%) realized −$1,186 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%75W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$169
14 days−$406
30 days−$1,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,010
other 2% −$179
crypto 0% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 52% -16.7%
≤30d 122 -3.0% -12.3% 61% 57% -16.7%
≤90d 122 -3.0% -12.3% 61% 57% -16.7%
all 122 -3.0% -12.3% 61% 57% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 57% -16.7%
10% -20.7% 51% -24.6%
15% -28.3% 34% -31.9%
20% -35.4% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$114 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$1,186
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses75 / 47
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage25d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 92¢ 100¢ $143 $155 +$13 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $34 +$60 +177%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $56 +$28 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $208 −$206 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$111 +55%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$89 +88%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$24 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $185 +$166 +90%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $124 +$62 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $57 +$67 +117%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$107 +216%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $136 −$135 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$36 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $33 −$33 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $170 −$169 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $110 +$60 +54%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $148 −$146 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $147 −$146 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $201 +$65 +32%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $69 +$64 +93%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $58 +$92 +159%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $105 +$53 +50%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $127 +$7 +5%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $182 −$180 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $99 +$82 +82%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$99 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $79 −$77 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$54 +53%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $139 +$36 +26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $51 +$48 +94%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $75 +$23 +30%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $76 +$64 +84%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $140 +$10 +7%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $100 +$41 +41%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $55 −$54 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $70 +$35 +51%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $56 +$63 +114%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $59 −$58 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $143 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $93 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $34 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $208 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $202 42h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $101 43h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $311 43h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 57¢ $99 44h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 72¢ $101 44h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $190 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $101 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 84¢ $100 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 99¢ $225 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 88¢ $201 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $350 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 64¢ $98 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $86 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $186 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $124 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $124 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $57 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $157 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $50 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 76¢ $100 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 75¢ $35 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner SELL Karmine Corp Blue 100¢ $136 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 73¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.34 · official $155.34 (match) · 233 history records