Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb241…902c crypto 164 markets active 9h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$401 (+2%) realized +$400 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%65W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$74
14 days−$1,503
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$392
other 10% +$421
sports 2% +$122
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +24.4% +12.6% 29% 27% -11.7%
≤30d 161 +13.2% +2.4% 40% 38% -8.9%
≤90d 161 +13.2% +2.4% 40% 38% -8.9%
all 161 +13.2% +2.4% 40% 38% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 38% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 36% -17.6%
15% -16.3% 34% -25.6%
20% -24.5% 31% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$79 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses65 / 96
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 164
History coverage18d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No 39¢ 47¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $294 +$206 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$133 +1290%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$208 +1352%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$240 +2330%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$49 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $188 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $150 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $135 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $199 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $115 −$110 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $192 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 44h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.85 · official $9.85 (match) · 544 history records