Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B2 0xb23e…829a other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$155 (+6%) realized +$65 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day59.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$133
other 38% +$34
sports 3% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +58.2% +43.1% 80% 50% +2.3%
≤30d 10 +58.2% +43.1% 80% 50% +2.3%
≤90d 10 +58.2% +43.1% 80% 50% +2.3%
all 10 +58.2% +43.1% 80% 50% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.1% 50% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here +29.4% 30% -7.5%
15% +16.9% 30% -16.5%
20% +5.4% 30% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.82 per $1 lost it wins $5.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,494
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day59.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 98¢ $470 $491 +$21 (+5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $315 $340 +$25 (+8%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? No 33¢ 42¢ $165 $210 +$45 (+27%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 73¢ 63¢ $220 $189 −$31 (-14%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $155 $155 −$0 (-0%)
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? No 16¢ 30¢ $33 $61 +$28 (+86%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? Jun 27 $79 +$5 +7%
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? Jun 27 $122 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $287 +$13 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $112 +$58 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 +$2 +12%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $62 +$38 +63%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 26 $157 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 29m
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $14 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 63¢ $60 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $6 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 33¢ $165 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $2 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $80 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $0 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $32 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 66¢ $62 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 2h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 2h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 2h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 2h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 30¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Vexa 45¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Vexa 30¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 14¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 14¢ $4 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $89 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $80 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 62¢ $31 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,494.33 · official $1,499.22 (match) · 80 history records