Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb23d…49ff crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$19 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 45L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,101
7 days−$788
14 days−$769
30 days−$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$759
other 25% +$178
sports 7% −$196
world 2% +$4
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -39.6% -45.4% 24% 24% -28.8%
≤30d 63 -38.0% -43.9% 29% 25% -27.2%
≤90d 63 -38.0% -43.9% 29% 25% -27.2%
all 63 -38.0% -43.9% 29% 25% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 25% -27.2%
10% -49.3% 19% -34.2%
15% -54.2% 16% -40.6%
20% -58.7% 16% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$40 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage13d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $99 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $605 −$529 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $514 −$388 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $518 +$182 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $506 +$325 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $205 −$188 -92%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $123 −$121 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $3 +$11 +355%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 −$17 -93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -86%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $5 +$18 +344%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 +$272 +54%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -79%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $142 +$176 +124%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $264 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $266 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $514 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $700 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.53 · official $7.53 (match) · 156 history records