Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb23d…8ba5 sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-2%) realized −$58 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%44W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$81
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$42
other 9% −$93
world 2% −$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -25.5% -32.6% 35% 35% -16.6%
≤30d 78 -13.5% -21.7% 40% 38% -13.5%
≤90d 127 -23.0% -30.4% 35% 33% -11.7%
all 127 -23.0% -30.4% 35% 33% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 33% -11.7%
10% -37.0% 33% -20.2%
15% -43.1% 32% -27.9%
20% -48.7% 29% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses44 / 83
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 139
History coverage54d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $31 +$38 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$24 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 +$48 +215%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$37 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$22 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $28 +$20 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$12 +82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $28 +$23 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $25 +$31 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 14 $20 +$30 +146%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$36 +234%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$28 +93%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $20 48m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 6¢ $3 52m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $20 53m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 8¢ $10 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 50¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: BUY 24¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $22 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $30 25h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 30¢ $10 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U BUY 21¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $25 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $41 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY 13¢ $14 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $28 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.23 · official $95.23 · 206 history records