trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +67.4% | +51.5% | 100% | 100% | +51.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +67.4% | +51.5% | 100% | 100% | +51.5% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +67.4% | +51.5% | 100% | 100% | +51.5% |
| all | 14 | -77.4% | -79.5% | 14% | 14% | -72.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -79.5% | 14% | -72.6% |
| 10% | -81.5% | 14% | -75.2% |
| 15% | -83.3% | 14% | -77.6% |
| 20% | -84.9% | 7% | -79.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $269 | $270 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 13¢ | $77 | $131 | +$54 (+70%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $90 | $123 | +$33 (+37%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 13¢ | $70 | $83 | +$14 (+20%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $70 | $58 | −$12 (-17%) |
| Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $45 | $19 | −$26 (-58%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $86 | +$58 | +67% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | Dec 16 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $110 | −$110 | -100% |
| Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $47 | −$47 | -100% |
| Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $105 | +$52 | +50% |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Dec 10 | $225 | −$225 | -100% |
| Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in | Dec 06 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 06 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | Dec 03 | $204 | −$204 | -100% |