Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B2 0xb23a…6547 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$23 (+23%) realized +$25 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+26.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+64.7%	+49.0%	100%	100%	+49.0%
≤30d	2	+40.2%	+26.8%	100%	100%	+28.6%
≤90d	2	+40.2%	+26.8%	100%	100%	+28.6%
all	2	+40.2%	+26.8%	100%	100%	+28.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.8%	100%	+28.6%
10%	+14.7%	50%	+16.3%
15%	+3.6%	50%	+5.0%
20%	-6.6%	50%	-5.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage10d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	42¢	$45	$43	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$28	+$18	+65%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe	Jun 12	$24	+$4	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$46	1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$28	6d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe	BUY Yes	86¢	$24	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.47 (match) · 5 history records