Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb237…f959 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$72 (+7%) realized +$80 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%32W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days+$87
14 days+$77
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$145
other 27% +$141
crypto 15% −$79
culture 4% +$24
politics 3% −$14
tech 2% −$9
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +18.6% +7.3% 44% 44% +12.3%
≤30d 35 +25.7% +13.7% 43% 43% +7.4%
≤90d 112 -7.9% -16.7% 29% 27% -17.8%
all 112 -7.9% -16.7% 29% 27% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 27% -17.8%
10% -24.7% 27% -25.7%
15% -32.0% 24% -32.9%
20% -38.6% 23% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses32 / 80
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions12
Markets (closed)112 / 124
History coverage45d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $108 −$5 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $68 −$66 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +249%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $38 −$4 -10%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$10 +194%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 13 $3 +$10 +312%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$12 +226%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $111 +$120 +108%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $4 +$8 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $5 +$10 +195%
Call of Duty: Cloud9 New York vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Le May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Lea May 29 $12 −$12 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 21 $2 +$4 +188%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 21 $10 +$51 +491%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $3 +$5 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 16 $31 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 16 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Call of Duty: Huntsmen vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 +$3 +337%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $37 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $5 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 46¢ $222 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $41 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $31 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $8 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $41 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $15 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $26 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $3 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 24¢ $2 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.79 · official $30.79 (match) · 245 history records