Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:32:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb237…3563 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$25 (+18%) realized +$47 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$1
tech 4% −$5
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+85.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +104.7% +85.2% 60% 60% +13.8%
≤30d 5 +104.7% +85.2% 60% 60% +13.8%
≤90d 5 +104.7% +85.2% 60% 60% +13.8%
all 5 +104.7% +85.2% 60% 60% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +85.2% 60% +13.8%
10% +67.5% 40% +2.9%
15% +51.3% 20% -7.1%
20% +36.5% 20% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.46 per $1 lost it wins $5.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $56 +$18 +32%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 10h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $55 23h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 23h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 23h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 61¢ $18 24h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 10¢ $1 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.05 · official $26.05 (match) · 17 history records