Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb234…5afb sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +182% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +145% what you keep after slip
Net edge+145%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$26
sports 27% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+154.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +181.7% +154.8% 100% 100% +67.2%
≤30d 3 +181.7% +154.8% 100% 100% +67.2%
≤90d 3 +181.7% +154.8% 100% 100% +67.2%
all 3 +181.7% +154.8% 100% 100% +67.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +154.8% 100% +67.2%
10% +130.4% 100% +51.2%
15% +108.2% 100% +36.6%
20% +87.8% 67% +23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +182% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$26 +47%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$19 +129%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$19 +370%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $34 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $12 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records