Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb233…8b22 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$9
other 24% −$1
tech 5% $0
politics 4% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 +212.2% +182.5% 17% 17% -10.9%
≤90d 15 +83.0% +65.5% 33% 7% -10.8%
all 39 +32.5% +19.9% 49% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.9% 3% -10.2%
10% +8.4% 3% -18.8%
15% -2.1% 3% -26.6%
20% -11.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage478d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $44 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $81 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $69 −$3 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $16 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $18 −$5 -27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $46 $0 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $92 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 06 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $12 $0 -1%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Mar 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $13 $0 +1%
Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure Mar 05 $13 $0 +2%
Boise State vs. Air Force Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $5 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $41 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $41 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $38 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $0 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $39 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $42 42h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.38 · official $37.38 (match) · 135 history records