Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb233…860a world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$2
world 33% −$4
other 21% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.2%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage324d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 -7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $93 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $26 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $104 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 06 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 01 $38 +$1 +2%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31? Jul 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 1.5%? Jul 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $31 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 84¢ $3 46h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $27 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $31 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $31 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records