Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb22b…e10a other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+12%) realized +$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.8% -2.5% 75% 75% +5.7%
≤30d 7 +3.5% -6.3% 71% 71% +5.7%
≤90d 8 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 62% +5.7%
all 8 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 62% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 62% +5.7%
10% -14.9% 38% -4.4%
15% -23.2% 38% -13.7%
20% -30.7% 38% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage31d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 +$10 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $54 +$33 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 +$20 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $87 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $54 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 27d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 31d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.37 · official $96.37 (match) · 18 history records