Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb22b…0509 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-3%) realized −$47 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$160
other 2% +$26
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -23.8%
≤30d 27 -23.4% -30.7% 22% 15% -26.0%
≤90d 27 -23.4% -30.7% 22% 15% -26.0%
all 80 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 32% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 32% -13.4%
10% -33.4% 26% -21.7%
15% -39.8% 16% -29.3%
20% -45.7% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage192d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$24 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$9 -61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 31 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 10 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Dec 10 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 10 $209 −$92 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Dec 09 $20 +$9 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 8 Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 08 $130 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 08 $66 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 08 $341 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 08 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 08 $10 +$15 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 08 $75 +$20 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 08 $90 +$21 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11AM ET Dec 08 $40 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 08 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 08 $152 −$80 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 08 $20 −$18 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Dec 08 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Dec 08 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 08 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 07 $88 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 77¢ $66 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 211 history records