Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb228…6840 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$117 (+2%) realized +$114 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days+$103
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$71
world 28% +$3
other 23% +$42
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 0% -5.3%
≤30d 10 +2.7% -7.0% 50% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 14 -5.1% -14.1% 43% 0% -7.7%
all 14 -5.1% -14.1% 43% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -7.7%
10% -22.3% 0% -16.5%
15% -29.8% 0% -24.6%
20% -36.7% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.23 per $1 lost it wins $5.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage71d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $261 $265 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 12 $456 +$44 +10%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 11 $483 $0 +0%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) Jun 10 $485 +$20 +4%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $456 −$2 -0%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $485 +$25 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 07 $486 $0 +0%
Spread: Greece (-2.5) Jun 06 $479 +$17 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? Jun 04 $478 $0 +0%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 03 $486 +$27 +6%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $482 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) Apr 24 $427 +$8 +2%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $428 $0 +0%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $261 1h
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 91¢ $456 6d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $483 6d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $483 7d
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) BUY Hong Kong SAR 96¢ $485 8d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $454 8d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $456 9d
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $485 10d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $486 11d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $486 11d
Spread: Greece (-2.5) BUY Sweden 96¢ $479 13d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? SELL No 94¢ $478 13d
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $478 13d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Belgium 94¢ $486 15d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $482 15d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $482 15d
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 98¢ $427 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $428 56d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $428 57d
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié $13 70d
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) BUY Real Betis Balompié $12 70d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes $9 70d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes $8 70d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes $9 71d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes $8 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.69 · official $264.69 (match) · 32 history records