Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb225…d86b sports 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,189 (-4%) realized −$927 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%88W / 99L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$679
30 days+$1,801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$321
world 12% −$464
politics 12% −$1,568
other 6% +$803
economics 2% +$169
tech 1% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +72.8% +56.3% 67% 67% +41.1%
≤90d 31 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 45% -3.4%
all 187 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 45% -12.5%
10% -21.0% 44% -20.8%
15% -28.6% 44% -28.5%
20% -35.6% 40% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$129 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$2,459
Realized−$927
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses88 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)187 / 192
History coverage262d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 42¢ $993 $925 −$68 (-7%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $500 $656 +$156 (+31%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $428 $423 −$5 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $500 $400 −$100 (-20%)
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $300 $55 −$245 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $207 +$201 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $187 −$184 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $510 +$662 +130%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $1,500 −$376 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$148 +146%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $713 +$1,350 +189%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $1,051 −$1,024 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $259 −$250 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 07 $256 +$421 +164%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $150 −$150 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 19 $205 −$205 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 146.5 Apr 10 $206 −$206 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) Apr 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 06 $254 −$254 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $500 +$374 +75%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) Apr 05 $209 −$209 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $188 +$214 +114%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $1,000 +$483 +48%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5) Mar 29 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5) Mar 29 $201 +$199 +99%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5 Mar 28 $157 −$157 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Mar 28 $154 −$154 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 172.5 Mar 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 139.5 Mar 28 $101 +$100 +99%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5) Mar 28 $145 +$156 +107%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) Mar 27 $109 +$92 +84%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $100 +$126 +126%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 27 $100 +$112 +112%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 24 $150 −$150 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 23 $187 +$113 +60%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $200 +$102 +51%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $100 +$232 +232%
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 34.5 Mar 21 $159 −$159 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Mar 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Mar 21 $115 −$115 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Mar 21 $147 −$147 -100%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Mar 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Mar 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Queens (NC) Royals vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 162.5 Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) Mar 21 $195 −$195 -100%
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship? Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Shane Steichen win NFL Coach of the Year? Mar 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Mar 21 $308 −$308 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Mar 21 $270 −$270 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $435 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 45¢ $187 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $207 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 26¢ $257 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 52¢ $229 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,124 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $102 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $510 23d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 26¢ $257 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,500 23d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 46¢ $511 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 26d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 27d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 34d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 13¢ $241 34d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY No 13¢ $259 34d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $296 36d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 45¢ $153 36d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $511 36d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $677 47d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $256 54d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 11¢ $100 58d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 45¢ $150 59d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $500 63d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $111 65d
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 67d
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 67d
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 68d
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 68d
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,459.08 · official $2,459.08 (match) · 537 history records