Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb225…7635 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$1
other 25% −$1
politics 6% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +0.2% -9.4% 47% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $70 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $35 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $22 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records