Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb224…c5d7 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$9
politics 31% −$6
sports 7% −$53
economics 4% −$1
world 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -4.7% -13.7% 2% 1% -9.8%
all 101 -4.8% -13.8% 6% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.9%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 95
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage117d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $185 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $338 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $383 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $301 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $160 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $411 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $137 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $126 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $348 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $360 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $261 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $291 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 12h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $26 15h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $150 27d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $150 27d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $193 30d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $193 30d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $159 30d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $159 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 31d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $189 32d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $189 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $170 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $170 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $138 35d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $138 36d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 37d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $148 38d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $144 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 276 history records