Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb221…a639 crypto 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,699 (-12%) realized −$2,730 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%152W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$446
14 days−$476
30 days−$1,233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$1,184
sports 36% −$2,219
other 3% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -30.7% -37.3% 19% 19% -27.0%
≤30d 57 -33.1% -39.4% 19% 19% -37.0%
≤90d 117 -29.3% -36.0% 24% 24% -36.0%
all 330 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 40% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 40% -23.6%
10% -26.7% 34% -30.9%
15% -33.8% 28% -37.6%
20% -40.3% 22% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$43 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$2,730
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses152 / 178
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions9
Markets (closed)330 / 339
History coverage112d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $39 $52 +$14 (+35%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $20 $31 +$12 (+58%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$2 -4%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $121 +$23 +19%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$93 +605%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $112 −$41 -37%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$7 -48%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $31 +$143 +464%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$48 +105%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $81 −$33 -41%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$26 -42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 +$110 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $233 −$54 -23%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $111 +$156 +140%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$13 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$8 +15%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $235 −$4 -2%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $41 +$80 +197%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $132 +$61 +46%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $58 −$27 -47%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $364 −$30 -8%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $196 −$64 -33%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 11 $100 +$51 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $39 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 86¢ $99 12h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 73¢ $109 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 60¢ $70 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $70 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $36 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 43¢ $45 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $76 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 29¢ $63 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $46 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.43 · official $233.43 (match) · 1079 history records