Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb220…5f71 other 995 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,876 (-2%) realized −$2,125 · open +$249
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate85%695W / 126L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$10,641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$446
world 21% +$2,041
politics 14% +$201
sports 11% +$65
crypto 4% −$11
economics 0% +$9
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$18
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -4.4% -13.5% 83% 11% -11.0%
≤30d 458 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 16% -8.6%
≤90d 821 +4.0% -5.9% 85% 20% -6.7%
all 821 +4.0% -5.9% 85% 20% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 20% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 13% -15.7%
15% -23.1% 9% -23.8%
20% -30.7% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$10,641
Realized−$2,125
Unrealized+$249
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses695 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions201
Markets (closed)821 / 995
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 201 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex be the last APAC team standing at Masters London Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,551 $1,547 −$5 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $538 $556 +$18 (+3%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $332 $341 +$9 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 67¢ 82¢ $199 $245 +$46 (+23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $228 $229 +$1 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $174 $218 +$44 (+25%)
Will Leviathan win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $171 $178 +$7 (+4%)
Will Life win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 66¢ $264 $175 −$89 (-34%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $153 $175 +$22 (+14%)
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $160 $173 +$13 (+8%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $165 $169 +$5 (+3%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $155 $164 +$9 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $156 $162 +$6 (+4%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $152 $159 +$7 (+5%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $136 $142 +$5 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 54¢ 96¢ $78 $140 +$61 (+78%)
Will Vasana Montgomery win Love Island USA Season 8? No 97¢ 98¢ $137 $139 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $113 $129 +$16 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $116 $118 +$2 (+2%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $110 $117 +$7 (+7%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $98 $108 +$10 (+10%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 36¢ $131 $103 −$28 (-22%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 89¢ 93¢ $95 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $16 +$6 +34%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Norris? Jun 16 $300 +$1 +0%
Who will finish higher: Alonso or Stroll? Jun 16 $167 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg? Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Verstappen? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar? Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Colapinto or Gasly? Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $4 +$6 +178%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $13 +$2 +12%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $147 +$1 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $54 +$1 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 −$9 -65%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $37 −$21 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $29 −$28 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $161 −$90 -56%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $29 −$6 -22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $18 −$12 -67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $27 $0 +1%
Will Liam Lawson finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Valtteri Bottas finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 15m
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Life win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will JitBoyS win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Leviathan win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Life win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will leaf win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will keiko win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Kr1stal win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.? BUY Jr. 99¢ $15 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $5 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $21 28h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 95¢ $9 28h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 30h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 30h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 94¢ $3 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 30h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 96¢ $4 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 94¢ $9 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $24 31h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY No 100¢ $19 31h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 100¢ $13 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $17 31h
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? BUY Hamilton 99¢ $12 33h
Who will finish higher: Alonso or Stroll? BUY Alonso 100¢ $167 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,641.43 · official $10,640.62 (match) · 3500 history records