Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb21d…3a2a sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$62 (-6%) realized −$61 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$91
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$87
other 5% $0
crypto 5% +$1
world 4% +$19
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -26.9% -33.9% 50% 50% -29.1%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 79% 50% -19.2%
all 20 +19.8% +8.4% 85% 40% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 40% -16.4%
10% -2.0% 35% -24.4%
15% -11.5% 25% -31.7%
20% -20.2% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$89 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage169d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 60¢ 60¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $92 −$91 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $89 −$88 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $85 +$47 +55%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $126 +$48 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $90 −$89 -99%
Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 12 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 12 $16 +$3 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 12 $22 $0 +1%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 12 $21 +$10 +48%
Thunder vs. Suns May 12 $39 +$10 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $63 +$41 +65%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 12 $87 +$25 +29%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $4 +$15 +400%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31? Feb 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 08 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.98 · official $89.98 (match) · 38 history records