Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb21c…3aed other 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (609 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24,972 (+3%) realized +$22,640 · open +$2,332
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate84%147W / 29L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$5,793per market
Trades / day608.6pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$101,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$26,049
crypto 11% +$2,415
sports 2% +$3,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (609 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +20.1% +8.7% 84% 19% -8.4%
≤30d 176 +20.1% +8.7% 84% 19% -8.4%
≤90d 176 +20.1% +8.7% 84% 19% -8.4%
all 176 +20.1% +8.7% 84% 19% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover608.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 19% -8.4%
10% -1.7% 6% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -25.2%
20% -19.9% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$9,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$445 vs −$1,745 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$101,539
Realized+$22,640
Unrealized+$2,332
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses147 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions6
Markets (closed)176 / 165
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$5,793
Trades / day608.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? No 98¢ 100¢ $33,006 $33,697 +$691 (+2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? No 99¢ 100¢ $31,051 $31,412 +$361 (+1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco? No 97¢ 100¢ $19,440 $19,990 +$550 (+3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? No 95¢ 100¢ $13,622 $14,286 +$665 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $951 $1,251 +$300 (+32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1,138 $902 −$236 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 30 $2,050 −$2,050 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 30 $5,457 −$5,457 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $569 −$569 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 30 $210 −$210 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 30 $359 −$359 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 30 $780 −$780 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Jun 30 $160 −$160 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 30 $160 −$160 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 30 $470 −$470 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 30 $512 −$512 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $245 −$245 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-05? Jun 30 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 30 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 30 $125 −$125 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $420 +$580 +138%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $9,200 +$800 +9%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 29 $3,451 +$34 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $3,318 +$238 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $9,570 +$430 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $10,558 +$687 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 29 $2,962 +$27 +1%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 29 $1,628 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 29 $3,394 +$116 +3%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 29 $465 +$30 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $587 −$580 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $680 −$680 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $19,680 +$320 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $4,075 +$279 +7%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $14,980 +$468 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $5,237 +$58 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $6,578 +$46 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $9,508 +$511 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $19,070 +$480 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $19,670 +$330 +2%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $8,041 +$57 +1%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $3,964 +$48 +1%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $8,900 +$1,100 +12%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $17,902 +$1,143 +6%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $19,840 +$160 +1%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $8,700 +$1,300 +15%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $783 +$23 +3%
South Africa vs. Canada: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $2,395 +$296 +12%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $19,780 +$220 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $2,650 +$291 +11%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $2,500 +$100 +4%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $8,500 −$8,500 -100%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $975 +$129 +13%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Jun 28 $1,360 +$21 +2%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $9,300 +$700 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 97¢ $19,440 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $226 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $98 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $414 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $98 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $236 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $82 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $399 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $243 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $82 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $159 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $89 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $1,482 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $452 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $72 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $8,233 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $433 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $4,662 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101,539.38 · official $101,541.16 (match) · 3500 history records