Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B2 0xb21b…88f9 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,318 (+84%) realized +$1,516 · open −$198

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip

Net edge+50%after slip

Net WR91%break-even

Win rate91%10W / 1L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$121per market

Trades / day21.7pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +91%

net ROI/market (all)+76.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+94.6%	+76.1%	91%	91%	+88.8%
≤30d	11	+94.6%	+76.1%	91%	91%	+88.8%
≤90d	11	+94.6%	+76.1%	91%	91%	+88.8%
all	11	+94.6%	+76.1%	91%	91%	+88.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+76.1%	91%	+88.8%
10% ← realistic here	+59.2%	91%	+70.7%
15%	+43.8%	64%	+54.2%
20%	+29.7%	45%	+39.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +109% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +95% · $-wt +109% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$136 vs −$43 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×32.04 per $1 lost it wins $32.04

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$157

Realized+$1,516

Unrealized−$198

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses10 / 1

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions2

Markets (closed)11 / 13

History coverage3d

Avg bet$121

Trades / day21.7

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	ECHO	33¢	30¢	$177	$156	−$21 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs	NAVI Junior	34¢	0¢	$178	$0	−$178 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed	Jun 19	$124	+$39	+32%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	Jun 19	$177	+$76	+43%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P	Jun 18	$74	+$22	+29%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake R	Jun 18	$110	+$31	+28%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	Jun 18	$126	−$43	-34%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League	Jun 18	$81	+$82	+101%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl	Jun 18	$48	+$83	+172%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P	Jun 18	$184	+$351	+191%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	Jun 18	$177	+$581	+329%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se	Jun 17	$35	+$17	+48%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl	Jun 17	$80	+$81	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	32¢	$56	45m
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	32¢	$1	1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	33¢	$36	1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	34¢	$36	2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	34¢	$36	2h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	33¢	$36	6h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	33¢	$36	7h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	33¢	$36	10h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	36¢	$3	10h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	36¢	$1	11h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	34¢	$36	12h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	36¢	$36	12h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European	BUY NAVI Junior	37¢	$3	12h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	37¢	$7	13h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis	BUY ECHO	37¢	$7	13h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	69¢	$17	30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	69¢	$35	30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	69¢	$35	30h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	BUY Team Nemesis	75¢	$101	30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	69¢	$35	30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	69¢	$17	31h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla	BUY Team Nemesis	75¢	$25	32h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P	BUY 100 Thieves	76¢	$42	36h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	69¢	$5	36h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P	BUY 100 Thieves	77¢	$5	37h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P	BUY Walczaki	33¢	$36	38h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode	BUY Walczaki	70¢	$31	39h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P	BUY 100 Thieves	78¢	$19	39h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P	BUY Walczaki	33¢	$16	39h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Rooster	22¢	$36	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.55 · official $169.79 · 73 history records