Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb21b…ab4b sports 1524 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$257 (+3%) realized +$261 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%738W / 766L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$43
14 days−$30
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$440
other 13% +$46
crypto 5% +$3
world 0% −$5
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 52% -12.5%
≤30d 1116 +3.2% -6.7% 51% 50% -5.8%
≤90d 1504 -1.7% -11.1% 49% 48% -10.8%
all 1504 -1.7% -11.1% 49% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 48% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -19.3%
15% -27.3% 45% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 41% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses738 / 766
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1504 / 1524
History coverage81d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 44¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+127%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? No 53¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 320 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 +$2 +50%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$8 +152%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$8 +165%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 3m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 9m
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 11m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 15m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 16m
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $5 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 66¢ $5 3h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 56¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 5h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 34¢ $5 6h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 47¢ $5 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $5 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 9h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 42¢ $5 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $5 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 15h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Viktoria Hruncakova 49¢ $5 15h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 72¢ $5 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 16h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 38¢ $5 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.43 · official $92.55 (match) · 3110 history records