Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B2 0xb219…68fe other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$68 (+42%) realized +$70 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +89% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip

Net edge+71%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+70.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+88.8%	+70.8%	100%	100%	+78.2%
≤30d	2	+88.8%	+70.8%	100%	100%	+78.2%
≤90d	2	+88.8%	+70.8%	100%	100%	+78.2%
all	2	+88.8%	+70.8%	100%	100%	+78.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+70.8%	100%	+78.2%
10%	+54.5%	100%	+61.1%
15%	+39.6%	100%	+45.6%
20%	+25.9%	50%	+31.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +97% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +89% · $-wt +97% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$91

Realized+$70

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$93	$91	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$41	+$55	+134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$28	+$12	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$95	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$41	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$28	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.40 · official $91.40 (match) · 5 history records