Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb219…526c crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+10%) realized +$181 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$10
sports 13% +$192
other 3% +$11
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 46% +0.4%
≤30d 46 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 46% +0.4%
≤90d 46 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 46% +0.4%
all 46 +14.9% +3.9% 48% 46% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 46% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 46% -9.2%
15% -15.1% 46% -18.0%
20% -23.4% 46% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$33 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$27 -52%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $26 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 +$88 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$76 +146%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 25 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $26 −$3 -10%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 25 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$63 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 +$113 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$106 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$47 +181%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 35m
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament SELL PCIFIC 100¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $45 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 46¢ $19 54m
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY PCIFIC 50¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 17h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 18h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 23¢ $23 25h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 25h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 62¢ $39 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records