Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

B2 0xb217…5383 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$339 (+11%) realized +$344 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate57%13W / 10L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$107per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$263

14 days+$265

30 days+$265

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-18.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+12.3%	+1.6%	100%	33%	+2.8%
≤30d	8	+11.1%	+0.5%	100%	25%	+2.6%
≤90d	23	-9.6%	-18.2%	57%	30%	+2.1%
all	23	-9.6%	-18.2%	57%	30%	+2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.2%	30%	+2.1%
10%	-26.0%	26%	-7.6%
15%	-33.2%	22%	-16.6%
20%	-39.7%	17%	-24.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

38% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$6 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage

Net worth$803

Realized+$344

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses13 / 10

Open positions5

Markets (closed)23 / 28

History coverage75d

Avg bet$107

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	No	87¢	94¢	$386	$420	+$34 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	Up	78¢	76¢	$176	$172	−$4 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	No	93¢	97¢	$130	$135	+$6 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?	No	95¢	99¢	$47	$50	+$2 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	29¢	11¢	$68	$26	−$42 (-62%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Jun 17	$468	+$37	+8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	Jun 15	$220	+$43	+19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$414	+$117	+28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Jun 12	$590	+$56	+10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	Jun 12	$49	+$2	+5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Jun 12	$196	+$7	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 12	$13	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 12	$24	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Apr 12	$14	−$3	-21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Apr 07	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Apr 05	$10	+$4	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Apr 05	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Apr 05	$5	−$1	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Apr 05	$8	+$7	+85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Apr 05	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Apr 05	$18	−$14	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Apr 05	$10	+$25	+247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Apr 05	$20	−$14	-71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Apr 05	$25	+$28	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Apr 05	$7	−$7	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Apr 05	$21	−$15	-70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Apr 05	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Apr 05	$9	+$6	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	BUY Up	72¢	$73	1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	BUY Up	70¢	$4	1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	28¢	$22	30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	28¢	$11	30h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	30h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	BUY Up	83¢	$33	34h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	BUY Up	84¢	$34	34h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	39h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$95	40h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1	41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	31¢	$18	41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	31¢	$3	41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$47	42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	BUY No	83¢	$33	2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	BUY Up	85¢	$34	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$1	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$14	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$10	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$4	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$5	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$9	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$10	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$1	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$18	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$95	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$17	2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$86	3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$12	3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	SELL No	97¢	$12	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.84 · official $802.84 (match) · 179 history records