Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb214…bb2a politics 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$6
other 36% −$6
sports 15% −$3
economics 5% −$2
world 3% $0
crypto 2% −$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 25% -10.4%
≤30d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 18% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -7.4% -16.2% 15% 8% -9.8%
all 97 -11.8% -20.2% 9% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -27.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -34.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 88
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage376d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $2 $0 +20%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $43 $0 -1%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $146 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $1 $0 -49%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $56 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $1 $0 -37%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $1 $0 -52%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $94 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $49 $0 -1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $166 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 29 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 6d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 14d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 0¢ $0 16d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $1 17d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 17d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 18d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 427 history records