Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb210…11bc other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,124 (-29%) realized −$973 · open −$151
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$210
14 days−$1,118
30 days−$1,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$876
crypto 10% −$217
finance 5% −$188
sports 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 71% -18.5%
≤30d 29 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 48% -39.5%
≤90d 29 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 48% -39.5%
all 29 -17.3% -25.2% 48% 48% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 48% -39.5%
10% -32.4% 48% -45.3%
15% -38.9% 45% -50.6%
20% -44.9% 21% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$123 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$973
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage11d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 26¢ $82 $39 −$42 (-52%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Yes 44¢ 10¢ $141 $32 −$109 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $164 +$62 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $217 −$215 -99%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $63 −$62 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $146 +$55 +38%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $92 +$54 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $110 +$32 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $69 +$41 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $180 −$80 -44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 +$53 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$30 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 +$112 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $280 −$278 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $139 +$60 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 +$45 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $166 −$164 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $166 −$165 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $225 −$143 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $255 −$251 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$55 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $194 −$188 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 −$14 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$76 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $63 +$27 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $83 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $143 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $226 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $164 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 27h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $38 29h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $2 29h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $2 29h
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $21 29h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $71 29h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $41 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $201 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $146 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $146 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $92 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 17¢ $21 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 43¢ $122 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $143 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $110 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $110 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $69 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $81 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $150 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $96 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $96 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $99 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $76 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.46 · official $117.75 · 68 history records