Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb20e…09c1 crypto 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$393 (-4%) realized −$386 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%123W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$53
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$888
sports 12% +$141
other 4% +$101
culture 2% +$105
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.9% -15.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
≤30d 8 -6.9% -15.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
≤90d 8 -6.9% -15.8% 38% 38% -19.4%
all 254 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 47% -14.5%
10% -22.7% 44% -22.6%
15% -30.1% 35% -30.1%
20% -37.0% 30% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$33 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses123 / 131
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage131d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $160 $153 −$7 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$104 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $206 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 01 $18 −$17 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 31 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 31 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 31 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 31 $48 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 31 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 31 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 31 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 31 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 31 $35 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 26 $170 −$132 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 25 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 25 $51 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 25 $97 +$68 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 25 $53 −$39 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 25 $107 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 25 $80 +$109 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 25 $23 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 25 $25 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 25 $20 +$29 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 25 $30 +$27 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 25 $20 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 25 $46 +$57 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 25 $30 +$16 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $18 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $37 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $27 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $35 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $69 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $48 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $35 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $27 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.88 · official $152.90 (match) · 584 history records