Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B2 0xb20b…e452 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$405 (-53%) realized −$572 · open +$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$406
other 22% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-72.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -44.7%
≤90d 5 -69.6% -72.5% 20% 20% -71.2%
all 5 -69.6% -72.5% 20% 20% -71.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.5% 20% -71.2%
10% -75.1% 20% -73.9%
15% -77.5% 20% -76.5%
20% -79.7% 20% -78.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$118 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$572
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage61d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 0¢ 57¢ $0 $167 +$167 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $189 −$186 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $125 +$65 +52%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $65 −$64 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 08 $118 −$116 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $168 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $189 14d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 65¢ $125 22d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $65 39d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 40¢ $118 45d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 23¢ $105 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.46 · official $167.46 (match) · 8 history records