Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B2 0xb20b…7e72 other 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$40
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$12
sports 6% +$1
crypto 4% +$5
tech 2% $0
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +12.3% +1.6% 60% 49% +2.1%
≤30d 47 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 38% -4.8%
≤90d 47 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 38% -4.8%
all 47 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 38% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 38% -4.8%
10% -14.7% 32% -13.9%
15% -22.9% 26% -22.2%
20% -30.5% 17% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)47 / 58
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$26 +143%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$7 -47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +72%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +238%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 7m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 33m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 34m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 34m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 35m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 35m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.57 · official $66.57 (match) · 120 history records